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Great Video <transportation and energy sector disruption>

BigN8

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This a great video about technology disruptions and market disruptions. I initially watched it to build a case for my company in pioneering new products due to market disruptions within my industry. Then I found the entire subject very interesting. Based on Tony's initial examples and data, there seems to be no argument for his predictions.

It's a little over an hour, but it's worth the watch.

 
Awesome video!!!! Totally worth watching!!! Now has me wondering about the new car I just bought!!! LOL

They nay sayers on the comments are interesting to read also.

This is coming....sure puts things like the Dakota Access Pipeline controversy into perspective...it'll be an empty pipe before its even finished.

My neighbor installed solar this summer, he has storage on back order (they can't keep up with demand) so he's just feeding the grid right now....but produces more than he uses.
 
I'm a big fan of solar being in TX and I'm actually well versed in it due to the commercial roofing industry I am in. The problem is until grid power gets more expensive, the economics of solar just don't make sense. But I agree with Tony, The point on the graph at which grid power and solar power meet is right around the corner. Most likely sooner than we would tend to think.

The one thing I question in the video is his unit costs for electricity in some of the charts. To me they seemed high, but I live in a state with relatively cheap power. So maybe those unit costs per kwh were a national average or something

I was also fascinated by the cost drop in Lidar. How it could start at $5000 and drop so quickly and that much technology in such a small device is amazing. Self driving cars will be everywhere before we know it!!!
 
I was also fascinated by the cost drop in Lidar. How it could start at $5000 and drop so quickly and that much technology in such a small device is amazing. Self driving cars will be everywhere before we know it!!!
Yep. Thanks for posting, good talk.
Reminded me of a trend in DNA sequencing - where genome sequencers filling three large buildings went down to a microwave-sized box - all in a span of about 5 years! (around 2010). Nowadays we can run several Mbp in hours (and almost no effort) vs 100bp/day (and working like a dog!) back when I started, lol (not to date myself).

To put it in perspective - cost per genome (human) went from over 100 million dollars per genome (w/the first genome costing closer to a billion, all told) - down to few hundred bucks today... Nuts!

So, those predictions can be real!

Charts don't lie:
upload_2018-8-17_1-18-12.png

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I have been very wrong before about emerging technologies. I was sure PayPal giving away $10 per new account was going to bankrupt them, and I still have a hard time grasping how Amazon stayed afloat without a profit for 6+ years.

So acknowledging that.... Self driving cars... I don't see it. It feels more like my flying car and my 30 minute flight to Europe. Seemed a sure thing in the 50s (before my time) but it never happened. consequences for failure in self driving cars are too great.

We don't even have self driving trains or planes as commonplace, and it would surely be easier to implement in those platforms first.... The only self driving thing today at the level required is an elevator.

So, hoping to be wrong, but knowing what I know today, I don't see true self driving cars in the wild on the next 10 years.
 
I have been very wrong before about emerging technologies. I was sure PayPal giving away $10 per new account was going to bankrupt them, and I still have a hard time grasping how Amazon stayed afloat without a profit for 6+ years.

So acknowledging that.... Self driving cars... I don't see it. It feels more like my flying car and my 30 minute flight to Europe. Seemed a sure thing in the 50s (before my time) but it never happened. consequences for failure in self driving cars are too great.

We don't even have self driving trains or planes as commonplace, and it would surely be easier to implement in those platforms first.... The only self driving thing today at the level required is an elevator.

So, hoping to be wrong, but knowing what I know today, I don't see true self driving cars in the wild on the next 10 years.
Huh? It's already, basically, underway... in many places. It's done.
As far as I'm concerned, you would have to kill me to pull me out of my Landy but I would love to send my kids to school in A-EVs.

http://www.wbur.org/bostonomix/2018/06/21/autonomous-vehicles-massachusetts-testing
https://news.voyage.auto/self-driving-cars-in-a-city-like-no-other-c9b38807a9a6
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/04/technology/driverless-cars-testing.html

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I have been very wrong before about emerging technologies. I was sure PayPal giving away $10 per new account was going to bankrupt them, and I still have a hard time grasping how Amazon stayed afloat without a profit for 6+ years.

So acknowledging that.... Self driving cars... I don't see it. It feels more like my flying car and my 30 minute flight to Europe. Seemed a sure thing in the 50s (before my time) but it never happened. consequences for failure in self driving cars are too great.

We don't even have self driving trains or planes as commonplace, and it would surely be easier to implement in those platforms first.... The only self driving thing today at the level required is an elevator.

So, hoping to be wrong, but knowing what I know today, I don't see true self driving cars in the wild on the next 10 years.

I haven't personally driven one, but other I know that have driven them tell me Tesla has a model that you can upgrade to self driving. I went to their website after watching the presentation and built a Model S and you can pick self driving technology as an add on. The tech is already here. It's just a matter of passing it within the transportation laws I believe.
 
The cars mentioned still require you to remain on the wheel and be liable for crashes.

It's that last leap that must be made that I find so difficult to make. How many people a year die riding elevators? (it's not zero)

How does that translate to truly self driving cars?

Look at the roads around you on a construction zone... When I do that on my area, I always wonder how the heck the self driving car will figure it out.

Don't think I don't want it... It would be so awesome... I see some very difficult challenges to overcome, insurmountable to me, and everyone else tasks about it as if it's an inevitability. As before, I hope I'm wrong.
 
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I always wonder how the heck the self driving car will figure it out.
Good question.
Answer: Turns out, better than most human drivers.

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Until it's done much better... It will still be the machine that killed someone.

Again, I'll be happy to admit I'm totally wrong if/when it works.
 
Until it's done much better... It will still be the machine that killed someone.

Again, I'll be happy to admit I'm totally wrong if/when it works.
Not sure I understand the comment.
The way I see it, given the mounting number of distracted drivers, drive OR text not going to happen otherwise. I can not wait for self driving cars to take over!

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I don't ride a motorcycle anymore on our roads because of distracted drivers. If I go out of this World......it will not be from some dumb ass teenager hitting me while they are texting a selfie!
 
This a great video about technology disruptions and market disruptions. I initially watched it to build a case for my company in pioneering new products due to market disruptions within my industry. Then I found the entire subject very interesting. Based on Tony's initial examples and data, there seems to be no argument for his predictions.

It's a little over an hour, but it's worth the watch.


Thank you for sharing, excellent watch. Imagine how this will impact the middle east and OPEC. They'll return to the dark ages or have to change core beliefs for outside cultures to embrace tourism.
 
Not sure I understand the comment.
The way I see it, given the mounting number of distracted drivers, drive OR text not going to happen otherwise. I can not wait for self driving cars to take over!

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I understand this argument, but the accidents and near misses I have seen on video from self driving cars are those that a human could avoid. A few of those and folks won't believe in the technology early on.

Again, I hope I'm wrong. I wish nothing more that to go to sleep on a Friday night in Houston, and wake up Saturday morning in Pensacola fully refreshed, driven by the machine. 5 years ago we thought it may be available in 5 years, and here we are. No self driving car that will take to Pensacola overnight.

When will it come? And, where is my flying car? :-)
 
Also, self driving car is the only area Im iffy on... We are already past peak oil... So all these things will happen regardless of my flying car/self driving car making it or not. I already fuel every 8 weeks only or less on my volt. Good offset to the fuel used by the boat!
 
I do find some of his data suspect. he is banking a great deal on people willing to give up their vehicles for UBER during the day. I dont think that will take hold as quickly. with ownership costs dropping, people would see a savings in driving and not feel the need to resource the vehicle

Also folks giving up car ownership to use an UBER service. thats a generational shift, not a 5 year mentality. The ability to jump in your car and hit the hardware store on a Saturday is a hard item to give up.......

whats going to tow your boat ? I want a diesel-electric hybrid. all it needs to do is idle !

For his solar statements: We need to start building homes with DC in mind. wire a house with Lamp cord instead of Romex. As i understand it now, the solar is still converting DC to AC at a loss to make things work....
 
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@BigN8 thanks for sharing that was a very interesting and enlightening video.

I am a Energy Trader (electricity) for a local utility here in South Carolina and have seen much of what was discussed in the video all ready come true. For us in the Southeast,the Energy markets changed drastically in the fall of 2008, the time of great recession. Prior to 2008, Southeast utilities experienced a year after year annual growth in electric consumption of 2 to 3%, typically monitored in peak demand for the highest hour of usage with a given year. For my utility the summer peak demand usage in 2008 was 4928 MW, if you assume the low side of growth at 2% per year and to make the example simple we will assume a growth of 100 MW per year (4928 MW x 2% = 98.56 MW). Since it has been 10 years since 2008, you would assume our utility peak demand for 2018 would be near 6000 MW (4928 MW + (100 MW * 10 years)). The reality is our peak demand has decreased by about 1% from the 2008 peak or 4875MW. From the Southeast utilities that I trade with, I have found that they all have either been flat or have a minor decrease in peak demand from their 2008 peak demand.

Why the decrease in utility produced electric demand? The first thing people think about is the loss of customers, well in the Southeast the number of customers has continually grown at about 2 to 3% per year, this growth is typically the major contributor to electric demand growth. Industry has also grown, as factories are leaving the rust belt or when new factories are being built many are locating to the Southeast. Due to the recession of 2008, what the electric industry saw for the first time was a concession decision by the public to conserve electric to save money. Electricity is one of the few services that you pay on demand not a flat monthly fee like cable, internet, cellular, so you have some control of your cost.

In the last 10 year what else has changed resulting in the consumer using less electricity? Here are a few efficient changes, compact florescent light bulbs and now LED light bulb, appliances (HVAC especially, all kitchen appliances, etc), programmable HVAC controls, shift from CRT TV's and monitors to LED versions , there are more but that gives you the idea. And in the last 3 years the amount of roof top solar systems has exponentially increased. During the summer the peak electricity demand occurs when the sun is shining the brightest and solar is producing at maximum output.

Like the video mentioned and I agree with, once solar + storage becomes cheap enough the exponential growth will have a dramatic and drastic impact to the old electricity model. There are some consumers out there changing their ways for personal reasons not cost savings but the majority of the consumers will not change until it becomes a personal financial benefit, this will be the tipping point.
 
On the self driving cars or the Uber subjects- For you guys that don't think it's a big deal, it probably has a lot to do with where you live. We live in the San Francisco Bay Area, literally a few blocks from Steve Job's old house and between the Facebook and Google campuses. In this area, there's a Prius, Leaf or Tesla in every driveway. (Except our driveway. It's full of cars, trucks, a boat and motorhome that suck gas like crazy!!!)

There are Waymo vans driving around EVERYWHERE. And TONS of people use Uber and Lyft constantly. Google self driving cars are also everywhere, as is many other self driving cars. I'm betting soon that probably half of the vehicles on the road around here will be either self driving or ride share vehicles. I'm betting half of them are already full electric or hybrids at least. Not only that, we're already seeing package carrying drones in the skies above us! My son is working with a company that's transporting donor blood to Stanford Hospital by drones. Crazy chit!

And yeah, I actually can't wait until the freeways are filled with self driving cars. It's the speed differentials that are so dangerous. We have freeways here that have timid drivers from a certain foreign country doing 45mph, normal people driving 65, then a huge percentage of people that do 85mph because we have very little CHP enforcement here. CHP won't even pull you over on certain parts of our freeways unless you're doing over 80mph. But doing 80 when others are doing 45-50 is insanely dangerous. When self driving cars are ALL doing the same speeds on the freeways, traffic jams, backups and accidents will absolutely drop substantially.
 
@BigN8 thanks for sharing that was a very interesting and enlightening video.

I am a Energy Trader (electricity) for a local utility here in South Carolina and have seen much of what was discussed in the video all ready come true. For us in the Southeast,the Energy markets changed drastically in the fall of 2008, the time of great recession. Prior to 2008, Southeast utilities experienced a year after year annual growth in electric consumption of 2 to 3%, typically monitored in peak demand for the highest hour of usage with a given year. For my utility the summer peak demand usage in 2008 was 4928 MW, if you assume the low side of growth at 2% per year and to make the example simple we will assume a growth of 100 MW per year (4928 MW x 2% = 98.56 MW). Since it has been 10 years since 2008, you would assume our utility peak demand for 2018 would be near 6000 MW (4928 MW + (100 MW * 10 years)). The reality is our peak demand has decreased by about 1% from the 2008 peak or 4875MW. From the Southeast utilities that I trade with, I have found that they all have either been flat or have a minor decrease in peak demand from their 2008 peak demand.

Why the decrease in utility produced electric demand? The first thing people think about is the loss of customers, well in the Southeast the number of customers has continually grown at about 2 to 3% per year, this growth is typically the major contributor to electric demand growth. Industry has also grown, as factories are leaving the rust belt or when new factories are being built many are locating to the Southeast. Due to the recession of 2008, what the electric industry saw for the first time was a concession decision by the public to conserve electric to save money. Electricity is one of the few services that you pay on demand not a flat monthly fee like cable, internet, cellular, so you have some control of your cost.

In the last 10 year what else has changed resulting in the consumer using less electricity? Here are a few efficient changes, compact florescent light bulbs and now LED light bulb, appliances (HVAC especially, all kitchen appliances, etc), programmable HVAC controls, shift from CRT TV's and monitors to LED versions , there are more but that gives you the idea. And in the last 3 years the amount of roof top solar systems has exponentially increased. During the summer the peak electricity demand occurs when the sun is shining the brightest and solar is producing at maximum output.

Like the video mentioned and I agree with, once solar + storage becomes cheap enough the exponential growth will have a dramatic and drastic impact to the old electricity model. There are some consumers out there changing their ways for personal reasons not cost savings but the majority of the consumers will not change until it becomes a personal financial benefit, this will be the tipping point.
Thanks Andy, that was a very informative view point from a guy deep in the industry. I can personally attest to what you were saying about manufacturing moving to the Southeast, as I have been involved with the roofing on many of the new and old manufacturing plants in that area. I'm always amazed at the size of some of the roofing orders that happen in the Southeast. So between residential growth and manufacturing growth you would thing peak demand would be through the roof.
 
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