The Boat Market Bubble is bursting...

[HangOutdoors]

I am sure there were a lot of purchases, do to the fact that you couldn't get one easily as well.........

In any event it is going to be interesting to see what happens over the next 3 - 24 months in the boating industry and market.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

I don't think the boat bubble will burst, but I think it will deflate. I think there are a significant number of people who got into boating as something to do with the family. I'm sure many truly enjoy their boats, but I would also be a large group who decides to sell their boats and get back into vacations and other activities.

I'm hoping to get a 210 or 220 (if there are changes made) sometime next year. Hoping I don't have to wait until next Fall, but as I plan to retire then, I most certainly would buy a boat in the Fall and my wife and I would travel with the boat.

Jim

 

[the MfM]

I haven’t watched boat prices closely but I know lumber and house prices are starting to look a little better. We sold our house for above ask this spring in a matter of days after non stop showings. Spent a lot of time at the lake this summer waiting things out...And it worked. We just had an offer accepted on a house we want to buy at ~12% below their asking price.

And that house is in a school district that’s the ranked nationally as one of the best by us news and world report. For what that’s worth.

 

[mwalker4]

In 1983, the summer after my Freshman year in college, I made a good living being repo man for GMAC in a world of very high inflation and unemployment. I drove many Camaros and Trans Ams to the repo lot that year. I don't see it getting that bad, but you will let your boat go to the loan company before you send your car back.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

We are building our retirement house on a lot that we own. We got the build under contract at the end of February. We had a pre-construction meeting with the builder in mid-June and we were told that the same house had a 12% increase is price because of the increase cost of materials. Fortunately, there is no increase in our build cost.

My dad was an engineer and a very pragmatic man. When I was much younger he told me, "When the price of wheat goes up the price of bread goes up. When the price of wheat falls, the price of bread stays the same." Over the years, I have found that that idea to be pretty accurate, no matter what the item is.

Jim

 

[the MfM]

We are building our retirement house on a lot that we own. We got the build under contract at the end of February. We had a pre-construction meeting with the builder in mid-June and we were told that the same house had a 12% increase is price because of the increase cost of materials. Fortunately, there is no increase in our build cost.

My dad was an engineer and a very pragmatic man. When I was much younger he told me, "When the price of wheat goes up the price of bread goes up. When the price of wheat falls, the price of bread stays the same." Over the years, I have found that that idea to be pretty accurate, no matter what the item is.

Jim

Holds true for oil and asphalt shingles, lol.

 

[jimbobalu]

It hasn't burst yet, just sold my 2003 Honda Aquatrax F12-X PWC for $5,000, that is half of what I paid for it new. Unbelievable. We had around 40 people interested in buying it.

 

[HangOutdoors]

There is a big difference between a $5000 PWC and a $60k used boat. It is evident that there is increasing downward pressure on used boat prices with people reducing their somewhat high prices as more and more boats are getting on the market. I would postulate that PWC's will hold their value longer because of the dollar amount/range is more palatable and affordable.

 

[mwalker4]

I'm not sure why someone north of Georgia would by a boat in late August in a bubble market. I can see a buyers strike until next spring when a new market level will be established.

 

[HangOutdoors]

I'm not sure why someone north of Georgia would by a boat in late August in a bubble market. I can see a buyers strike until next spring when a new market level will be established.

I agree with you, but what happens if chit doesn't resolve itself in the spring. Now you are backed into a corner if you want to boat next year. That is the risk/reward each person needs to come to terms with. The market might be worse or better. Weird times.

 

[mwalker4]

I agree with you, but what happens if chit doesn't resolve itself in the spring. Now you are backed into a corner if you want to boat next year. That is the risk/reward each person needs to come to terms with. The market might be worse or better. Weird times.

Yep, for each transaction there is a person thinking the markets going down and one thinking its going higher. I know one thing, if after my August WVa mudding trip someone still wants to give me $18k+ for my 10 year old 2 door Wrangler Sport S its probably sold. Next spring getting more for my 2019 190SX than I paid for it would be real tempting. I guess I would need new hobbies for a year. Kayaking is fun.

 

[Adrian @ JB Solutions]

Yep, for each transaction there is a person thinking the markets going down and one thinking its going higher. I know one thing, if after my August WVa mudding trip someone still wants to give me $18k+ for my 10 year old 2 door Wrangler Sport S its probably sold. Next spring getting more for my 2019 190SX than I paid for it would be real tempting. I guess I would need new hobbies for a year. Kayaking is fun.

I don't see Wrangler prices moving much. My friend has a 2007 two door base model, she could get 12k for it in a few hours, probably more in the COVID market.

 

[Evil Sports]

I was considering a new boat for here and sending my 2013 down to Florida. All the problems with the new boats have me considering a 18-19 242, sending that to Florida and keeping my 13 here. Just waiting and watching now.....

 

[Smiley]

We bought a brand new one at the beginning of the year, it’s been great so far. Sold a camper for almost exactly what I paid for it 4 years ago when I bought it new. I was so worried, I took a job last month making 50% more closer to home that’s fully remote for the foreseeable future. I’ll let the chips fall where they may. If you bought a boat as an investment, I have some great mutual funds I’d like you to take a look at…

 

[BlkGS]

I Dont see international travel rebounding any time soon. Disney and other theme park destinations are pricing themselves out of contention for people while cutting their quality. Cruise ships are probably not going to rebound for a long time.

I think personal relaxation objects like boats, rvs, and sports car are pretty safe for a while. Especially something that's not insanely expensive. Something in the sub 35 ot 40k range I don't see dropping much, if at all.

 

[suke]

I Dont see international travel rebounding any time soon. Disney and other theme park destinations are pricing themselves out of contention for people while cutting their quality. Cruise ships are probably not going to rebound for a long time.

I think personal relaxation objects like boats, rvs, and sports car are pretty safe for a while. Especially something that's not insanely expensive. Something in the sub 35 ot 40k range I don't see dropping much, if at all.

Being an avid Disney goer it seems their plan is to raise the prices to make the same amount while decreasing the amount of people in the parks. You see they are having line issues with some of the lines having wait times of nearly 4 hours. The change to the fastpass system to allow for reservations has been a dumpster fire. Next way is to jack the prices until you see attendance drop. In the meantime people will still spend 10-20k on a week long Disney vacay.

 

[mwalker4]

We are in the middle of the Modern Monetary Theory experiment. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a macroeconomic framework that says monetarily sovereign countries like the U.S., U.K., Japan, and Canada, which spend, tax, and borrow in a fiat currency that they fully control, are not operationally constrained by revenues when it comes to federal government spending. Put simply, such governments do not rely on taxes or borrowing for spending since they can print as much as they need and are the monopoly issuers of the currency. Since their budgets aren’t like a regular household’s, their policies should not be shaped by fears of rising national debt.

How does this relate to boats? Depending the impact of all of our printing of money and fake borrowing, you may want to take out as many loans as you can, to buy every asset that you will want or need for the future, because you will be paying it back with money that is worth less than it is today.

 

[BlkGS]

Being an avid Disney goer it seems their plan is to raise the prices to make the same amount while decreasing the amount of people in the parks. You see they are having line issues with some of the lines having wait times of nearly 4 hours. The change to the fastpass system to allow for reservations has been a dumpster fire. Next way is to jack the prices until you see attendance drop. In the meantime people will still spend 10-20k on a week long Disney vacay.

They've been doing that since pre covid. They're starting to get a really bad reputation for the parks being dirty, crowded, long waits, and overall not worth the price.

A lot of our friends who are also APs have been switching to Universal. Universal seems to have been better about keeping staff levels up where they need to be and keeping their offerings up.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

While I don't disagree with post #177, money tomorrow is always worth less than it is today. Compound this with low interest rates it definitely is a great time to borrow money, providing one has a steady income.

Jim

 

[suke]

They've been doing that since pre covid. They're starting to get a really bad reputation for the parks being dirty, crowded, long waits, and overall not worth the price.

A lot of our friends who are also APs have been switching to Universal. Universal seems to have been better about keeping staff levels up where they need to be and keeping their offerings up.

They sure have. We haven't been back since the beginning of the pandemic. We went in Feb RIGHT before it got crazy in the states. Lines were still absurd. I'm done with Disney now until they figure out it isn't worth spending thousands to ride 4 rides a day. We're doing Lego Land next time instead. My little one loves Legos. I've not heard good things about it, but we'll give it a shot. That or do Busch gardens.